ONLINE LECTURE DELIVERED BY OLUWATOSIN OPEYEMI OLAYINKA ON "ROADMAP TO THE 2019 NIGERIA GENERAL ELECTIONS "

ONLINE LECTURE TO BE DELIVERED BY OLUWATOSIN OPEYEMI OLAYINKA ON SUNDAY THE 23RD OF DECEMBER, 2018 AT UTOPIAN NEWS MEDIA PLATFORM
TOPIC: ROADMAP TO THE 2019 ELECTIONS_ VAM Nigeria NewsOnline

1. HISTORY
     At the inception of the 4th Republic in 1999, the three major political parties were the People’s Democratic Party(PDP0, the Alliance for Democracy(AD), and the All People’s Party(APP). The PDP presented Olusegun Obasanjo as its presidential flag bearer while the AD and the APP jointly presented Oluyemisi Falae as candidate under an alliance.
           Obasanjo was declared winner of the election despite talks of major irregularities in the election. President Obasanjo contested another for another term in 2003 under the same party while but hid opponent this time was Muhammadu Buhari, a former military head of state who contested under the All Nigeria People’s Party. Obasanjo was again declared winner with the continued belief of the electorate that the process was heavily manipulated.
     President Obasanjo and his party wanted a third term in office but the attempt was thwarted by the coalition of efforts from his estranged deputy, Atiku Abubakar who also wanted to be president and other political stakeholders in the opposition movement. The President was forced to present a sickly Umaru Yar’adua, the then Governor of Katsina State and a seemingly bland Goodluck Jonathan as Presidential  and Vice Presidential candidates respectively of his party. A move several observers saw as payback for the rejection of his Third term ambition.
    Mr Yar’adua won the election as against Muhammadu Buhari of the ANPP and Atiku Abubakar who had earlier defected to the Action Congress. Mr Yar’adua however died in office after 3 years leaving his deputy, Goodluck Jonathan to complete the tenure and as well contest  the Presidential election of the following year.
   Jonathan contested the PDP primaries with Atiku Abubakar and won, he also won the Presidential election against the serial contender, Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and Nuhu Ribadu of the ActionCongress of Nigeria (ACN).
  In 2015, Jonathan wanted to go for a second term but the north felt that he had used the term of their son, Umaru Yara’dua and that power must return to the zone. There were also issues of a dwindling economy, massive corruption and an alarming level of insecurity.
   President Jonathan lost the election to Muhammadu Buhari who contested on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, a coalition of about four major opposition parties. President Jonathan conceded defeat in a move that was seen by his supporters as heroic but by neutrals and opposition members as a save facing attempt as he was already pushed to the wall.
President Buhari was sworn in as the fourth president of the fourth republic on the 29th of May,2015 and will be seeking re-election in the February,2019 elections.

2. Electoral laws and INEC
        The legal framework for the conduct of elections in Nigeria are the Constitution generally and the Electoral Act particularly. The 1999 constitution is in the process of amendment while the Electoral Act was amended in 2003,2006 and 2010. The amendments that were proposed by the parliament in the run-up to next year’s election have not been assented by the President for reasons best known to him and his associates.
  The Electoral Act has before now introduced innovations such as the Permanent Voters Card, card readers, accreditation of voters and the incidence forms.
   The Independent National Electoral Commission is the body saddled with the conduct of elections in Nigeria. It is expected to be neutral in the discharge of its functions. Its pioneer chairman was Mr Abel Guobadia who handed over to Professor Maurice Iwu whose tenure was allegedly marred by a lot of electoral infractions that smeared the image of the commission.
   Professor Iwu handed over to Professor Attahiru Jega who conducted the 2015 elections before handing over to Professor Mahmoud Yakubu, the current head of the agency.
    Despite the professed independence of the body, it is unfortunate that the proposed funding of the body from the consolidated funds which would have established its neutrality has not materialized. It continues to be funded by the government and it follows naturally that he who pays the piper, dictates the tune.

3. The role of the media and security agencies
    The print and electronic media have been important components of the electoral process through effective coverage and reportage. The candidates are also expected to raise their campaigns and present their manifestoes through the media. There is the angle of enlightenment as can be seen in the Presidential debates.
  The media has become unfortunately an avenue of propagating fake news , of oppression of opposition candidates and of maligning the images of political opponents.
     Security agencies are also expected to provide cover for INEC staff, materials and voters. They have in recent times been used as agents of disruption of the process especially as seen in the recent elections in osun state. This brings the question of if it is the police force or the military that should be in charge of election monitoring.
   It is recommended that there should be a special task force in all the security formations specially trained on election duties.

5. The emergence of the third force
    It has always been part of the political process for smaller parties to field candidates for elective positions. However, the clamour  for a third force to counter the two main parties who have failed to bring succor in the opinion of Nigerians threw up some young professionals who seem capable.
     We have Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress, Obiageli Ezekwesili of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, Kingsley Moghalu of the Young Progressive Party, Fela Durotoye of the Alliance for New Nigeria and Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim of the Peoples Trust Party.
    It is noteworthy however that three things will work against the ambitions of these individuals. They are; (1) They have no existing structure to get their spread to the whole country  (2) They lack the financial muscle to mount a serious challenge to the two prominent parties.  (3) There is this underground opinion that most of them are working for the big parties to cancel out one another. It is perceived that Sowore, Durotoye and Hashim  are working for the APC whilst Moghalu and Ezekwesili(due to her closeness to Obasanjo) are working for the PDP.
      It is a thing of great pleasure to see such individuals contesting. It must be said though that no matter the great intentions, vision or capacity of a leader, the current Nigerian system will not permit for such intentions to come through.

6. ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT REGIME
President Buhari and his party, the All Progressives Congress campaigned vigorously in 2015 to get the nod of the citizens.  His being a former military head of state and a fourth time contender swayed the people to his side with the believe that he has the requisite experience and the leadership panache.
    I wrote an article titled “Now that change is here” to usher in the new government on the 29th of May, 2015 were I gave the opinion that Nigerians should not expect miracles from the government of President Buhari.  For some of us who are realists,Nigeria is enmeshed in so much rot to expect a single individual to fix everything in a short span of time.
    The man was expected to lay a foundation for future generation of leaders to build on and in that respect, he has not failed me.
    However, there are some policies of the government that were not well though out as they had damning effects on the citizens, the much touted anti-corruption drive is tantamount to the mere barking of a toothless bulldog. It is however worthy of note that politicians and political office holders are no longer spending recklessly from the national till.
    In the areas of security, agriculture and social welfare, the government has fared averagely. Also in infrastructure and power, there have been notable improvements. A lot need to be done on the economy as we need to move away from oil as our major income earner as it is no longer available as it was in time past.
     We also need to improve on the health and education sectors. It is important to note that there is no way a ship will be steered from near damnation without some accompanying hardship.   This has nothing to do with President Buhari or his government, I do not see any member of the ruling class that would have been a better option as president than PMB in 2015.
   What about 2019?  The options we have for 2019 are not too exciting. President Buhari has not performed exceptional well but is Atiku Abubakar a better option?  I personally don’t think so. This has informed my position for which I am unapologetic about and it is that I wont be involved in the 2019 election beyond TV followership. No campaigns, no stress, no worries.

7. THE NIGERIAN ELECTORATE
Since the beginning of democratic rule, Nigerians have always been enthusiastic and committed to the electoral process. However, the political system where the winner takes all has brought some level of desperation for seekers of political offices.
   A former president, Olusegun Obasanjo was reputed to have described the 2007 election that brought in the late Alhaji Umaru Yar’adua as a “do or die” affair .
The violence that attended elections in the fourth republic was captured in my final year thesis at the university titled “Election petitions and elections in the fourth republic:the southwest in focus” dated March 2010 wherein I posited that the citizens are bound to develop apathy towards the electoral process in years to come since the process will not be free nor be seen to be fair.
     In recent times, there is a bit of enlightenment drive and citizen awareness as it has all come to nought since it will not engender any change in the leadership of the nation.The ruling class remains what it is. Nigerians are cajoled and hamstrung during elections if not by heavy militarization, it will be by massive financial .
   I will advocate that we stop bothering too much about the ruling class at the moment , they are all the same and chainging one for another will not bring any change. We should strive to develop ourselves individually and by then, it is the government that will seek us and not vice versa. That is the restructuring that we should seek, the restructuring of the mind and not the one being bandied by those seeking to sing coded tunes into our ears. They had the chance, they didn’t do it.

8. MY PREDICTION
I personally think that President Buhari will win re-election in 2019 for a lot of reasons. The reasons include: (1) The population of the northern region. Some people will say that Atiku is from the same Fulani extraction but you cannot place Atiku and Buhari on the same pedestal up north. Buhari is not seen as a mere mortal to an average northerner, he is a religion and a movement. He only needs to keep telling  them that he is fighting corruption. (2) No one individual can spendas much as the Federal Government at the moment without the fear of the EFCC. Nigerians are hungry and we have seen from recent elections that the issue of vote buying will always persist. I have seen enough to know that most of those shouting Atikulated today will not hesitate to vote for Buhari for as little as #5000.   (3) President Buhari and his party, the APC have infiltrated the south east and south south which were places he won’t ordinarily get more than 10% votes but the outlook suggests that he will not get less than 20% in most of the states in those regions. The leaders of thought in those regions are only PDP in appearance,they prefer a Buhari presidency to an uncertain future with an unknown bride.  (4) The PDP is not still seen as a better alternative, it does not seem like the citizens have forgotten that the years of misrule contributed greatly to the sufferings of today. Atiku Abubakar to an average observer represents the poster boy avid corruption under the PDP government. The idea remains that the man allegedly sold most government property to himself and his cronies as chairman of the National Privatisation council.  (5) The paraphernalia of office remains with President Buhari. No matter what we say, he has the INEC chairman and the Inspector General of police loyal to him, he also has majority of the governors under his umbrella. Even those who have grievances against the party still adopted President Buhari’s candidature. The APC has a party chairman who is a veteran in electoral success. President Buhari’s victory was sealed the day Adams Oshiomole became national chairman.  (6) The Electoral Act Amendment Bill if passed would have disenfranchised a lot of President Buhari’s supporters. They now only need incidence forms to vote.

9. BRIEF  ANALYSIS OF THE ZONES
SOUTH EAST: The igbos have traditionally never liked Muhammadu Buhari and they did not vote for him even when he chose their sons, Chuba Okadigbo and Edwin Ume Ezeoke as running mates. This is seen in some quarters as political narrow-mindedness. In recent times, their leaders are beginning to see things differently and are not willing to put all their eggs in a basket. I think President Buhari will get 20-30% of votes in this region.
SOUTH SOUTH: They are twin brothers of the south east in their cautious approach to a Buhari Presidency. However, they have been wiser. The defection of Godswill Akpabio to the APC means himself alongside Rotimi Amaechi and Adams Oshiomole as leaders of that region will deliver between 25-35% of votes to President Buhari.
SOUTH WEST:  Suprisingly, the votes here will be split almost in equal proportions despite the fact that all the governors of the region are members of the ruling party and we have the vice presidency. The zone is very liberal politically and the opposition party will get good votes here though it may not be enough to defeat President Buhari. Buhari should get between 50-55% of votes here.
NORTH CENTRAL: This region is very dicey especially with the level of insecurity and killings in most of the state from Fulani Herdsmen that the President has failed to adequately address. The defection of the Senate President is also a factor. I expect Saraki to win his seat but may not have the majority to get the senate presidency.President Buhari should get between 48-52% of votes here.
NORTH EAST: This is the zone of the PDP candidate, he will lose here though. Atiku will even lose his home state to President Buhari and this is based on my earlier position that the average northerner views the two men differently. Atiku will only win Taraba state here though the battle will be close in Adamawa and  Gombe states.Buhari is expected to get between 65-70% of votes here.
NORTH WEST: This is the zone with the highest population of voters and also President Buhari’s zone. He is expected to win the 7 states with a wide margin. These ones don’t care who Buhari is contesting against and they all go out to vote. President Bhari is expected to get between 70-80% of votes here. It is also instructive to note that almost all the political leaders in the north east and north west are allied to Buhari irrespective of the political party they belong to. Most of them only have political adversaries in their states of APC extraction to battle.

Oluwatosin Opeyemi

CONCLUSION
     I will conclude by saying that the presidential 2019 elections will go the way of the various elections before it. As a matter of fact, many political observers are already seeing it as a forgone conclusion. Most of the things you see on the political scene today are about the 2023 elections.
     It is evident in the issues that came up after the governorship primaries of the APC where the governors of Oun, Ondo, Zamfara and Imo were outplayed and presidential primaries of the PDP where the supporters of Aminu Tambuwal have not given Atiku Abubakar the needed support.
   Almost every nigerian politician from the south who has been governor or is still the governor of a state wants to be President in 2023 and the current alliances you see in the foremost parties are geared towards who becomes President and Vice president in 2023.
    I want to say that Nigerians should not be concerned about any NEXT LEVEL, Buhari is not taking us there. They know that we are very impatient so they brought something to pique our interest. Buhari is only going to lay the foundation for that next level.
     I will also like to say that Nigeria will naturally evolve politically. The ruling class will have to see our despondency and abdicate power in due time.  In the meantime however, let us take our individual destinies in our hands.

I WISH US ALL MERRY CHRISTMAS  AND A PROSPEROUS 2019. God bless Utopian News Media Platform and also Voice Air Media Nigeria NewsOnliqne. God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
   TOSIN YEMI OLAYINKA, A LEGAL PRACTITIONER AND ENTREPRENEUR WRITES FROM ADO EKITI.